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Q4 2021 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update
The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. Many thanks to Matthew Gardner and the Windermere staff for getting this out to us. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Just when we thought COVID was starting to pull back, the Omicron variant made its presence known. It is still too early to suggest that this has affected the region’s economic recovery—we won’t likely know for certain until we get more job data. I remain hopeful that this latest spike in infections will not have too much of an impact, but only time will tell. To date, the region has recovered all but 51,000 of the 297,000 jobs that were lost due to the pandemic. Some of the region’s smaller counties, including Grays Harbor, Cowlitz, Thurston, San Juan, and Clallam, have seen a full job recovery. The most recent data (November) shows the regional unemployment rate at a very respectable 3.3%, which is below the pre-pandemic low of 3.7%. The lowest unemployment rates were in King and San Juan Counties, where 2.9% of the labor force was out of work. The highest rate was in Grays Harbor County, which registered 5.1%. I still expect to see a full job recovery by this summer. However, there is a growing labor shortage holding the area back. Hopefully, this will change, but some industry sectors—especially hospitality—continue to find it hard to attract workers.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES
❱ In the final quarter of the year, 22,161 homes sold, representing a drop of 5.2% compared to the same period in 2020 and down 18.8% from the third quarter.
❱ The reason there were lower year-over-year sales is simply because the number of homes for sale was down more than 30%. The drop between third and fourth quarters is likely due to seasonality changes in the market.
❱ Although home sales were lower in most markets, there was a significant uptick in Grays Harbor and Thurston counties. The number of homes sold dropped across the board compared to the third quarter.
❱ The ratio of pending sales (demand) to active listings (supply) showed sales outpacing listings by a factor of 5.2. The market is supply starved and unfortunately, it’s unlikely enough homes will be listed this spring to satisfy demand.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES
❱ Home prices rose 15.1% compared to a year ago, with an average sale price of $711,008. This was 2.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2021.
❱ When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in San Juan and Jefferson counties. All but two markets saw prices rise more than 10% from a year ago.
❱ Relative to the third quarter, every county except Island (-8.6%), Mason (-5.2%), Lewis (-2.9%), King (-2.1%), Cowlitz (-1.7%), and Kitsap (-0.9%) saw sale prices rise.
❱ Mortgage rates rose more than .2% between the third and fourth quarters, which may have impacted prices. Affordability constraints continue to grow, which is also likely to have played a part in slowing gains.
DAYS ON MARKET
❱ It took an average of 23 days for homes to sell in the final quarter of 2021. This was 8 fewer days than in the same quarter of 2020, but 6 more days than in the third quarter of last year.
❱ Snohomish, Thurston, King, and Kitsap counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of between 13 and 16 days to sell. The greatest drop in market time compared to a year ago was in San Juan County, where it took 33 fewer days for a seller to find a buyer.
❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market drop from the same period a year ago. Every county except Whatcom saw market time rise compared to the third quarter.
❱ Longer days on market might suggest that things are starting to slow, but I don’t actually think this is the case. I believe buyers are being a little more selective before making offers, and many may be waiting in the hope that supply levels will improve in the spring.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
The housing market remains in a state of imbalance, but, as I look at the data, I believe the frenetic pace of sales and price appreciation may start to soften in 2022.
This will likely be due to financing costs and affordability acting as headwinds to price growth. Mortgage rates have started to rise again, and I have forecasted them to reach 3.7% by fourth quarter. This alone will slow price growth as affordability in many areas declines.
One thing that remains unknown that could have a significant impact on the market is long-term work-from-home policies. Many businesses have not yet determined their plans for remote working, but once they do, potential home buyers who have been waiting to see how frequently they have to commute to work could immediately start their search. In addition to boosting sales, this could add inventory to the market as well.
All things considered, I am moving the needle just a notch toward buyers. However, as you can see, we are still in a market that heavily favors home sellers.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022
Matthew Gardner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2022
1. Prices will continue to rise
There are some who believe that U.S. home prices will drop in the coming year given last year’s extremely rapid pace of growth, but I disagree. I don’t expect prices to fall; however, the pace of appreciation will slow significantly, rising by around 6% in 2022 as compared to 16% in 2021 (nationally). As such, agents need to be prepared to explain this new reality to their clients who have become very accustomed to prices spiraling upward. Those days are likely behind us—and it’s not a bad thing!
2. Spring will be busier than expected
The work-from-home paradigm is here to stay for the foreseeable future, and this could lead to increased buyer demand. Many companies have postponed announcing their long-term work-from-home policies due to the shifting COVID-19 variants, but I believe they will soon off er more clarity to their employees. Once this happens, it will likely lead to a new pool of home buyers who want to move to more affordable markets that are further away from their workplaces. I also expect to see more buyers who are driven by the need for a home that is better equipped for long-term remote working.
3. The rise of the suburbs
For a large number of people whose employers will allow them to work from home on an ongoing basis, remote working will not be an all-or-nothing proposition. It will be a blend of working from home and the office. I believe this will lead some buyers to look for homes in areas that are relatively proximate to their office, such as the suburbs or other ex-urban markets, but away from high-density neighborhoods.
4. New construction jumps
I anticipate the cost of building homes to come down a bit this year as inflation finally starts to taper, and this should provide additional stimulus for homebuilders to start construction of more units. Material costs spiked in 2021 with lumber prices alone adding about $36,000 to the price of a new home. This year, I’m hopeful that the supply chain bottlenecks will be fixed, which should cause prices to moderate and result in a drop in building material costs.
5. Zoning issues will be addressed
I’m optimistic that discussions around zoning policies will continue to pick up steam this year. This is because many U.S. legislators now understand that one of the main ways to deal with housing affordability is to increase the supply of land for residential construction. Despite concerns that increased density will lower home values, I believe existing homeowners will actually see their homes rise in value faster because of these policies.
6. Climate change will impact where buyers live
Now that natural disasters are increasing in frequency and climate risk data is starting to become more readily available, get ready for home buyers to require information from their agents about these risks and their associated costs. Specifically, buyers will want to know about an area’s flood and fire risks and how they might impact their insurance costs and/or their mortgage rate.
7. Urban markets will bounce back
While increased working from home can, and will, raise housing demand in areas farther away from city centers, it may not necessarily mean less demand for living in cities. In fact, some urban neighborhoods that were once only convenient to a subset of commuters may now be considered highly desirable and accessible to a larger set of potential home buyers. At the same time, this could be a problem for some distressed urban neighborhoods where proximity to employment centers may have been their best asset.
8. A resurgence in foreign investors
Foreign buyers have been sitting on the sidelines since the pandemic began, but they started to look again when the travel ban was lifted in November 2021. Recently, the rise of the Omicron variant has halted their buying activity, but if our borders remain open, I fully expect foreign buyer demand to rise significantly in 2022. Keep in mind, foreign buyers were still buying homes sight unseen even when they were unable to enter the country, and this will likely still be the case if borders are closed again.
9. First-time buyers will be an even bigger factor in 2022
Once remote working policies are clearer, we should see increased demand by first-time buyers who currently rent. In 2022, 4.8 million millennials will turn 30, which is the median age of first-time buyers in the U.S. An additional 9.4 million will turn 28 or 29 in the coming year. I believe this group is likely to contemplate buying sooner than expected if they can continue working from home in some capacity. Doing so would allow them to buy in outlying markets where homes are more affordable.
10. Forbearance will come to an end
Forbearance was a well-thought-out program to keep people in their homes during the height of the pandemic. Some predicted this would lead to a wave of foreclosures that would hurt the housing market, but this has not been the case. In fact, there are now fewer than 900,000 U.S. homeowners in forbearance, down from its May 2020 peak of almost 4.8 million, and this number will continue to shrink. That said, there will likely be a moderate increase in foreclosure activity in 2022, but most homeowners in this situation will sell in order to meet their financial obligations rather than have their home repossessed.
Q2 2021 Western Washington Real Estate Market Update
The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. I hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me any time.
REGIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Employment levels in Western Washington picked up in the late spring and early summer months. The region has now recovered 168,800 of the 297,210 jobs that were lost due to the pandemic. Although the recovery is palpable, there are still 128,000 fewer jobs than there were at the pre-COVID peak in February 2020. The most recent data (May) shows the region’s unemployment rate at a respectable 5.2%. This is significantly lower than the April 2020 high of 16.8%, but still not close to the 2020 low of 3.7%. The jobless rate was lowest in King County (4.8%) and highest in Grays Harbor County (7.6%). Although unemployment levels continue to drop, we cannot attribute all the improvement to job creation: a shrinking labor force also lowers the jobless rate. In short, job recovery continues but we still have a way to go.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES
❱ Regardless of low levels of supply, sales in the second quarter rose 45.6% year-over year, with a total of 25,640 homes sold. Although comparisons to the same quarter a year ago are not informative due to the pandemic, I was pleased to see sales increase 61.3% from the first quarter of this year.
❱ Listing activity was 42.8% higher than in the first quarter, which was a pleasant surprise. Listings rose the most in Kitsap, Clallam, Island, and Mason counties, but there were solid increases across the region.
❱ Sales were up across the board, with sizable increases in San Juan, King, Whatcom, and Snohomish counties. Only Mason County experienced sales growth below 10%.
❱ Pending sales (demand) outpaced active listings (supply) by a factor of 6. Even with the increase in the number of homes for sale, the market is far from being balanced.
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES
❱ Home prices rose 31.4% compared to a year ago. The average sale price was $734,567—another all-time record.
❱ Year-over-year price growth was strongest in San Juan and Jefferson counties, but all markets saw prices rise more than 23% from a year ago.
❱ Home prices were a remarkable 15.7% higher than in the first quarter of this year, possibly due in part to the drop in 30-year fixed mortgage rates between the end of the first and second quarters. That said, the modest decline in mortgage rates is certainly not the primary driver of price growth; the culprit remains inadequate supply.
❱ Relative to the first quarter of the year, San Juan (+33%), Jefferson (+24.7%), and Island (+20.5%) counties saw the fastest rate of home-price appreciation.
DAYS ON MARKET
❱ It took an average of only 18 days for a listed home to go pending. This was 22 fewer days than a year ago, and 11 fewer days than in the first quarter of 2021.
❱ Snohomish, Kitsap, Thurston, and Pierce counties were the tightest markets in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 7 days to sell in Snohomish County and 9 days in the other three counties. The greatest drop in market time compared to a year ago was in San Juan County, where it took 84 fewer days to sell a home.
❱ All counties contained in this report saw the average time on market drop from the same period a year ago. The same can be said when comparing market time in the current quarter with the first quarter.
❱ It’s widely known that the area’s housing market is very tight and unfortunately, I don’t expect the number of listings to increase enough to satisfy demand in the near term. Furthermore, I’m seeing rapid growth in demand in the counties surrounding King County which is likely proof that buyers are willing to move further out given the work-from-home paradigm shift.
CONCLUSIONS
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
Demand is maintaining its momentum, and, even with supply levels modestly improving, the market remains extraordinarily tight.
Mortgage rates are still hovering around 3%, but the specter of them starting to rise at some point is clearly motivating buyers. I am very interested to see significant interest outside of the Seattle metro area, although King County is certainly still performing well. I will be monitoring whether this “move to the ‘burbs” is endemic, or a temporary phenomenon. My gut tells me that it is the former.
At some point, the remarkable run up in home values will slow. Affordability constraints are becoming more widespread, and even a modest uptick in mortgage rates will start to slow down price increases. It’s worth noting that list-price growth is starting to taper in some markets. This is a leading indicator that may point to a market that is starting to lose a little momentum.
The bottom line is that the market still heavily favors sellers and, as such, I am moving the needle even more in their favor.
ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Improve Your Bottom Line
Buying Investment property is one of the ways to improve your bottom line regarding your personal wealth. Numerous Americans are taking advantage of this historic Buyers market, and building their future wealth.
My 4-plex in Edmonds, WA, sold this week with numerous multiple offers, as a case in point. Buyers are recongnizing that this product is good and has value! You can take a look at it here. It reminds me of how great an investment these rental properties are. The rental market is strong and is expected to continue for some time. With lending practices tightening up the criteria for home mortgages, not just everyone can get a mortgage as they did in the more recent past, also precipitating the economic downturn that we have experienced. So, more people are needing rentals.
Couple of articles related to this:
1) CNN Now It’s a Great Time to Invest!
The important aspects about investment property is to buy in the right location–close to amenities, bus lines, hospitals, shops, etc, as various renters are without cars and rely on bus connections. Real estate is often–almost always about location, location, location. The Loan to Value–amount to purchase and the amount of downpayment. The rent you charge should at least cover the mortgage payment and more if possible.
Homes and multiplexes are at an all time low, so if you are sitting on the fence, this might be the time to consider taking the plunge.
